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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Highlands Park FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
8/22/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Loftus Versfeld Stadium (Pretoria (Tshwane))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns58%
×Draw25%
Highlands Park FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.57
Highlands Park FC
0.69

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 128% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Highlands Park FC
0.83

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Highlands Park FC
1.20

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Highlands Park FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
84%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Highlands Park FC
75%
Draw or Highlands Park FC
42%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
31%
Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
79%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
46%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
21%
Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
50%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
15%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
78%
Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
58%
level
25%
Highlands Park FC scores more
16%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Mamelodi Sundowns 0–0 Highlands Park FC

Mamelodi Sundowns and Highlands Park FC drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium (Pretoria (Tshwane)).