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Highlands Park FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
1/22/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Makhulong Stadium (Tembisa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Highlands Park FC28%
×Draw28%
Mamelodi Sundowns44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlands Park FC
0.98
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.29

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Highlands Park FC
1.33
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Highlands Park FC
1.03
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Highlands Park FC+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlands Park FC ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Highlands Park FC or draw
56%
Highlands Park FC or Mamelodi Sundowns
72%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
72%

Winning margin

Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
10%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
62%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
26%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
8%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
37%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
39%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlands Park FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlands Park FC attack 1.33 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Highlands Park FC scores more
28%
level
28%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
44%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Highlands Park FC 1–2 Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Highlands Park FC 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on January 22, 2019.

The match was played at Makhulong Stadium (Tembisa).