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Mamelodi Sundowns vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
P. Shalulile 12'
A. Zouhzouh 83'
1/19/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns57%
×Draw26%
FAR Rabat17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.53
FAR Rabat
0.70

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 119% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
83%
Mamelodi Sundowns or FAR Rabat
74%
Draw or FAR Rabat
43%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
30%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
78%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
45%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
20%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
50%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
16%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
77%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
57%
level
26%
FAR Rabat scores more
17%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Lucas Ribeiro CostaMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
P. Shalulile↳ Lucas Ribeiro Costa
48'
Larbi Naji
63'
A. Zouhzouh← A. Hammoudan
76'
T. Matthews← I. Rayners
76'
J. Beya← K. Aït Ouarkhane
77'
N. Maema← S. Mkhulise
83'
A. Zouhzouh↳ Y. El Fahli
85'
A. Hadraf← Z. Derrag
85'
Z. Ajoughlal← T. Orebonye
90+2'
Arthur Sales← P. Shalulile

Possession

69%Mamelodi

Shots

12Mamelodi

Pass accuracy

53%Mamelodi

Statistics

MamelodiFAR
Overview
69%Possession31%
12Total Shots7
7Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots7
5On Target1
5Off Target4
2Blocked2
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
602Total Passes266
551Accurate Passes215
92%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs FAR Rabat

Mamelodi Sundowns and FAR Rabat drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on January 19, 2025.

Goals: P. Shalulile (12'), A. Zouhzouh (83').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (69%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.