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FAR Rabat vs Mamelodi Sundowns — CAF Champions League 2019

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
M. Hrimat 74'
I. Rayners 66'
12/7/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat43%
×Draw27%
Mamelodi Sundowns29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.35
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.06

FAR Rabat creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 41 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.88
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.63

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.50
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.83

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
71%
FAR Rabat or Mamelodi Sundowns
73%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
57%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
20%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
74%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
39%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
15%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
65%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
60%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.63 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
43%
level
27%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
29%

FAR Rabat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
M. HrimatFAR RabatFAR Rabat · M
8.0

Match Events

24'
M. Lebusa← M. Mvala
33'
Mosa Lebusa
45+3'
Mohamed Rabie Hrimat
45+3'
Lucas Ribeiro
56'
Teboho Mokoena
66'
I. Rayners↳ R. Williams
73'
T. Morena← B. Aubaas
73'
L. Maboe← Lucas Ribeiro Costa
74'
M. Hrimat↳ Y. El Fahli
78'
A. Hammoudan← J. Beya
80'
Aubrey Modiba
90+6'
Abdelfettah Hadraf
90+2'
Aubrey Modiba
90+2'
Aubrey Modiba
90+1'
A. Hadraf← M. Hrimat

Possession

41%FAR

Shots

10FAR

Pass accuracy

48%FAR

Statistics

FARMamelodi
Overview
41%Possession59%
10Total Shots10
3Corners4
13Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots10
6On Target2
2Off Target6
2Blocked2
4Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
379Total Passes549
306Accurate Passes483
81%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls19
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

CAF Champions League: FAR Rabat 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

FAR Rabat and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on December 7, 2024.

Goals: I. Rayners (66'), M. Hrimat (74').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.