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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Cape Town City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cape Town City
Cape Town City
10/30/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 5Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns57%
×Draw25%
Cape Town City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.56
Cape Town City
0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 111% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 109 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Cape Town City
0.95

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Cape Town City
1.19

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Cape Town City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Cape Town City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
82%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Cape Town City
75%
Draw or Cape Town City
43%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
30%
Cape Town City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
79%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
46%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
21%
Cape Town City 1+ goals
52%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
17%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
76%
Cape Town City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Cape Town City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Cape Town City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cape Town City attack 0.95 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
57%
level
25%
Cape Town City scores more
18%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Cape Town City

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Cape Town City 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.