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Cape Town City vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
5/3/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22DHL Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Cape Town City29%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
0.97
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.24

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 28% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 119 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
58%
Cape Town City or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
10%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
62%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
25%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
7%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
71%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
35%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
41%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cape Town City scores more
29%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
42%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cape Town City 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Cape Town City 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at DHL Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town, WC.