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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
1/7/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns48%
×Draw28%
Bidvest Wits24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.33
Bidvest Wits
0.85

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 56% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
76%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Bidvest Wits
72%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
52%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
23%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
74%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
38%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
15%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
57%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
21%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
67%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
48%
level
28%
Bidvest Wits scores more
24%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Mamelodi Sundowns 0–0 Bidvest Wits

Mamelodi Sundowns and Bidvest Wits drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 7, 2020.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.