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Bidvest Wits vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
2/23/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17BidVest Stadium (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bidvest Wits30%
×Draw28%
Mamelodi Sundowns42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidvest Wits
1.02
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.25

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bidvest Wits
1.43
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Bidvest Wits
0.97
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidvest Wits ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bidvest Wits or draw
58%
Bidvest Wits or Mamelodi Sundowns
72%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
70%

Winning margin

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
11%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
64%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
27%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
8%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
71%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
36%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
42%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidvest Wits at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidvest Wits attack 1.43 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bidvest Wits scores more
30%
level
28%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
42%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bidvest Wits 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Bidvest Wits and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at BidVest Stadium (Johannesburg, GA).