Malženice 1–4 Liptovský Mikuláš: Result & Stats

Malženice

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Liptovský Mikuláš

8/10/2024

2. liga · Round 3Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malženice42%

×Draw25%

Liptovský Mikuláš33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalženiceExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.35

Malženice

1.56

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.35

Malženice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 67 away

1.49

creates per match

1.66

1.05

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Malženice

1.49

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.66

allows per match

Malženice

1.05

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Malženice or draw

67%

Malženice or Liptovský Mikuláš

75%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

58%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+

21%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals

79%

Malženice 2+ goals

46%

Malženice 3+ goals

21%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

74%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

39%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)

56%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 1.49 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Malženice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malženice scores more

42%

level

25%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

33%

Malženice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff