Liptovský Mikuláš 4–2 Malženice: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Malženice

11/11/2023

2. liga · Round 16Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš55%

×Draw23%

Malženice23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchMalženice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.12

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.86

Malženice

1.12

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 66% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 43 away

1.85

creates per match

1.14

1.10

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.85

Malženice

1.14

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Malženice

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Malženice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

77%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Malženice

77%

Draw or Malženice

45%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

31%

Malženice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

84%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

55%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

28%

Malženice 1+ goals

67%

Malženice 2+ goals

31%

Malženice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

71%

Malženice (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Malženice attack 1.14 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

55%

level

23%

Malženice scores more

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff