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Malženice vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
CANC
15:00
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
6/13/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Malženice65%
×Draw20%
Lednické Rovne15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.06
Lednické Rovne
0.85

Malženice creates 142% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 24 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
85%
Malženice or Lednické Rovne
80%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
35%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
41%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
87%
Malženice 2+ goals
61%
Malženice 3+ goals
34%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
57%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
21%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
82%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Malženice scores more
65%
level
20%
Lednické Rovne scores more
15%

Malženice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malženice face Lednické Rovne (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Malženice hosting Lednické Rovne. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.