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Lednické Rovne vs Malženice — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 6
Malženice
Malženice
6/20/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne24%
×Draw23%
Malženice52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.13
Malženice
1.78

Malženice creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Malženice
1.69

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Malženice
1.21

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
48%
Lednické Rovne or Malženice
77%
Draw or Malženice
76%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
9%
Malženice wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
68%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
31%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
11%
Malženice 1+ goals
83%
Malženice 2+ goals
53%
Malženice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
32%
Malženice (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Malženice defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Malženice attack 1.69 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
24%
level
23%
Malženice scores more
52%

Malženice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Lednické Rovne 0–8 Malženice

Malženice beat Lednické Rovne 8-0 in 3. liga - West on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.