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Malženice vs Komárno — 2. liga 2019

Malženice
Malženice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Komárno
Komárno
8/27/20232. liga2. liga · Round 5Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malženice45%
×Draw26%
Komárno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
1.50
Komárno
1.16

Malženice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 71 away

creates per match

Malženice
1.49
Komárno
1.27

allows per match

Malženice
1.05
Komárno
1.51

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
71%
Malženice or Komárno
74%
Draw or Komárno
55%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
22%
Komárno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
78%
Malženice 2+ goals
44%
Malženice 3+ goals
19%
Komárno 1+ goals
69%
Komárno 2+ goals
32%
Komárno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
61%
Komárno (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Komárno away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.51 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 1.49 + Komárno defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Komárno attack 1.27 + Malženice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malženice scores more
45%
level
26%
Komárno scores more
29%

Malženice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Malženice 0–1 Komárno

Komárno beat Malženice 1-0 in 2. liga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.