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Komárno vs Malženice — 2. liga 2019

Komárno
Komárno
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malženice
Malženice
3/16/20242. liga2. liga · Round 20Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Komárno57%
×Draw23%
Malženice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.82
Malženice
0.98

Komárno creates 86% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 43 away

creates per match

Komárno
1.76
Malženice
1.14

allows per match

Komárno
0.82
Malženice
1.88

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
80%
Komárno or Malženice
77%
Draw or Malženice
43%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
33%
Malženice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
84%
Komárno 2+ goals
54%
Komárno 3+ goals
27%
Malženice 1+ goals
62%
Malženice 2+ goals
26%
Malženice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
74%
Malženice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.76 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Malženice attack 1.14 + Komárno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Komárno scores more
57%
level
23%
Malženice scores more
20%

Komárno at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Komárno 0–0 Malženice

Komárno and Malženice drew 0-0 in 2. liga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.