Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malta vs Faroe Islands — Euro Championship 2024

Malta
Malta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
S. Borg 77' (pen)
K. Nwoko 13'
J. Thomsen 90+8'
3/23/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta49%
×Draw22%
Faroe Islands29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
2.00
Faroe Islands
1.50

Malta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Malta
0.60
Faroe Islands
0.40

allows per match

Malta
2.60
Faroe Islands
3.40

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Malta or draw
71%
Malta or Faroe Islands
78%
Draw or Faroe Islands
51%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
28%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
86%
Malta 2+ goals
59%
Malta 3+ goals
32%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
78%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
44%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
63%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.60 + Faroe Islands defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Faroe Islands attack 0.40 + Malta defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malta scores more
49%
level
22%
Faroe Islands scores more
29%

Malta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. BorgMaltaMalta · D
8.3

Match Events

13'
K. Nwoko↳ P. Fenech
33'
Rene Joensen
36'
Kyrian Nwoko
61'
Steve Borg
62'
Andrei Agius
63'
Z. Muscat← J. Corbalan
68'
K. í Bartalsstovu← S. Vatnhamar
72'
J. Zerafa← M. Mifsud
72'
K. Olsen← R. Joensen
77'
S. BorgPenalty
79'
Á. Frederiksberg← R. Baldvinsson
85'
J. Mintoff← R. Muscat
86'
Kaj Leo í Bartalsstovu
90'
Henry Bonello
90'
Gilli Sørensen
90'
Hallur Hansson
90+8'
J. Thomsen↳ G. Rólantsson

Possession

31%Malta

Shots

9Malta

Pass accuracy

45%Malta

Statistics

MaltaFaroe
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots10
3Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target4
4Off Target3
3Blocked3
4Inside Box9
5Outside Box1
Passing
31%Possession69%
273Total Passes586
194Accurate Passes502
71%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards–
0Offsides1

Euro Championship: Malta 2–1 Faroe Islands

Malta beat Faroe Islands 2-1 in Euro Championship on March 23, 2019.

Goals: K. Nwoko (13'), S. Borg (77' pen), J. Thomsen (90+8').

Faroe Islands controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.