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Faroe Islands vs Malta — Euro Championship 2024

Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malta
Malta
R. Baldvinsson 71'
10/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Faroe Islands44%
×Draw25%
Malta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faroe Islands
1.60
Malta
1.30

Faroe Islands creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Faroe Islands
0.40
Malta
0.00

allows per match

Faroe Islands
2.60
Malta
2.80

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw
69%
Faroe Islands or Malta
75%
Draw or Malta
56%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+
23%
Malta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals
80%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
47%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
22%
Malta 1+ goals
73%
Malta 2+ goals
37%
Malta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
59%
Malta (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Malta away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 0.40 + Malta defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Malta attack 0.00 + Faroe Islands defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Faroe Islands scores more
44%
level
25%
Malta scores more
31%

Faroe Islands at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
R. BaldvinssonFaroe IslandsFaroe Islands · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
Joseph Mbong
65'
K. Olsen← J. Bjartalíð
71'
L. Gambin← P. Fenech
71'
A. Effiong← M. Mifsud
71'
R. Baldvinsson↳ B. Hendriksson
75'
Steve Borg
80'
J. Zerafa← R. Muscat
85'
Á. Frederiksberg← V. Davidsen
90+4'
M. Egilsson← J. Edmundsson

Possession

60%Faroe

Shots

9Faroe

Pass accuracy

51%Faroe

Statistics

FaroeMalta
Overview
60%Possession40%
9Total Shots14
3Corners1
12Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target2
5Off Target7
1Blocked5
6Inside Box6
3Outside Box8
Passing
60%Possession40%
595Total Passes392
513Accurate Passes320
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Faroe Islands vs Malta

Faroe Islands beat Malta 1-0 in Euro Championship on October 15, 2019.

Goals: R. Baldvinsson (71').

Faroe Islands controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.