Malmo FF 1–1 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kalmar FF

E. Botheim 16'

R. Jansson 61'

3/20/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malmo FF31%

×Draw24%

Kalmar FF44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.63

Malmo FF

1.33

Kalmar FF

1.63

Kalmar FF creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.83

1.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Malmo FF

1.00

Kalmar FF

1.83

allows per match

Malmo FF

1.43

Kalmar FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

56%

Malmo FF or Kalmar FF

76%

Draw or Kalmar FF

69%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

14%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

74%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

38%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

15%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

80%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

48%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

41%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.00 + Kalmar FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kalmar FF attack 1.83 + Malmo FF defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malmo FF scores more

31%

level

24%

Kalmar FF scores more

44%

Kalmar FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Botheim

61'

R. Jansson

Malmo

Kalmar

1

Brolin

2

Larsson

4

⚽

6

10

12

13

17

23

24

39

27

2

5

4

23

22

7

47

29

28

20

⚽

Botheim

Manager: Endika Gavina

Malmo FF substitutes

1Nieroth19Rosler37Skogmar42Jeppsson45Hoog8Sigurdsson11Ekong32Gudjohnsen

Manager: Toni Koskela

Kalmar FF substitutes

30Kindberg3Overby15Dari5Hallberg7Chourak11Olusanya28Sabriye70Emeka14Imeri

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF

Malmo FF and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 20, 2026.

Goals: E. Botheim (16'), R. Jansson (61').

Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF