Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malmo FF

V. Osuji 63'

M. Hallberg 54'

H. Bolin 77'

E. Botheim 9' (pen)

8/24/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 20Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kalmar FF30%

×Draw25%

Malmo FF45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.56

Kalmar FF

1.22

Malmo FF

1.56

Malmo FF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 37 away

1.25

creates per match

1.59

1.54

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Kalmar FF

1.25

Malmo FF

1.59

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.54

Malmo FF

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

55%

Kalmar FF or Malmo FF

75%

Draw or Malmo FF

70%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

12%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

70%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

34%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

12%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

79%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

46%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

40%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.25 + Malmo FF defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Malmo FF attack 1.59 + Kalmar FF defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

30%

level

25%

Malmo FF scores more

45%

Malmo FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

H. Bolin

Malmo FF · M

8.3

Match Events

9'

E. BotheimPenalty

46'

Romário← A. Magashy

46'

R. Sjöstedt← A. Gersbach

54'

M. Hallberg↳ S. Skrabb

59'

T. Ali← S. Jørgensen

63'

V. Osuji

68'

J. Ring← S. Ylätupa

68'

J. Stryger Larsen← L. Berg Johnsen

68'

I. Kiese Thelin← Gabriel Busanello

68'

A. Christiansen← A. Skogmar

77'

H. Bolin↳ T. Ali

78'

S. Hakšabanović← O. Rosengren

81'

A. Motaraghebjafarpour← D. Krasniqi

86'

Rasmus Sjöstedt

90+5'

Robert Gojani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarMalmo

Overview

28%Possession72%

9Total Shots19

1.01Expected Goals (xG)2.10

3Corners6

17Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots19

4On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked6

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box10

Passing

28%Possession72%

295Total Passes763

224Accurate Passes696

76%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF

Kalmar FF and Malmo FF drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on August 24, 2024.

Goals: E. Botheim (9' pen), M. Hallberg (54'), V. Osuji (63'), H. Bolin (77').

Malmo FF controlled possession (72%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.

Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF