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Malmo FF vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Juventus
Juventus
9/14/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malmo FF40%
×Draw26%
Juventus34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.35
Juventus
1.23

Malmo FF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
1.27
Juventus
1.52

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.93
Juventus
1.44

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
66%
Malmo FF or Juventus
74%
Draw or Juventus
60%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
18%
Juventus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
74%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
39%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
15%
Juventus 1+ goals
71%
Juventus 2+ goals
35%
Juventus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
54%
Juventus (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.27 + Juventus defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Juventus attack 1.52 + Malmo FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malmo FF scores more
40%
level
26%
Juventus scores more
34%

Malmo FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Juventus

Juventus beat Malmo FF 3-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.