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Juventus vs Malmo FF — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
12/8/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juventus52%
×Draw23%
Malmo FF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.77
Malmo FF
1.14

Juventus creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.91
Malmo FF
1.31

allows per match

Juventus
0.96
Malmo FF
1.63

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
75%
Juventus or Malmo FF
77%
Draw or Malmo FF
48%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
29%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
83%
Juventus 2+ goals
53%
Juventus 3+ goals
26%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
68%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
32%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
68%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.91 + Malmo FF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Malmo FF attack 1.31 + Juventus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventus scores more
52%
level
23%
Malmo FF scores more
25%

Juventus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs Malmo FF

Juventus beat Malmo FF 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.