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Malmo FF vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
L. Berg Johnsen 78'
A. Christiansen 30'
Í. Sigurgeirsson 21'
8/17/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Malmo FF55%
×Draw23%
IFK Norrkoping22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.87
IFK Norrkoping
1.09

Malmo FF creates 72% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 121 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
2.17
IFK Norrkoping
1.40

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.79
IFK Norrkoping
1.57

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
78%
Malmo FF or IFK Norrkoping
77%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
45%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
32%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
85%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
56%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
29%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
66%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
30%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
72%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.79 · 126 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.17 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.87

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Malmo FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Malmo FF scores more
55%
level
23%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
22%

Malmo FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
E. BotheimMalmo FFMalmo FF · F
8.3

Match Events

21'
Í. Sigurgeirsson↳ K. Khazeni
30'
A. Christiansen↳ S. Jørgensen
37'
Lasse Berg Johnsen
61'
H. Bolin← S. Jørgensen
62'
S. Nanasi← A. Christiansen
73'
O. Berg← O. Rosengren
73'
J. Stryger Larsen← A. Skogmar
76'
T. Prica← K. Khazeni
76'
L. Shabani← Í. Sigurgeirsson
78'
L. Berg Johnsen↳ H. Bolin
81'
Moutaz Neffati
84'
S. Hakšabanović← T. Ali
90'
Jesper Ceesay← I. Lushaku
90'
T. Sandberg← M. Neffati
90'
K. Höög Jansson← D. Salihović

Possession

65%Malmo

Shots

22Malmo

Pass accuracy

53%Malmo

Statistics

MalmoIFK
Overview
65%Possession35%
22Total Shots10
2.35Expected Goals (xG)1.06
7Corners2
13Fouls9
Shots
22Total Shots10
5On Target4
9Off Target6
8Blocked0
12Inside Box7
10Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
570Total Passes307
508Accurate Passes239
89%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs IFK Norrkoping

Malmo FF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 17, 2024.

Goals: Í. Sigurgeirsson (21'), A. Christiansen (30'), L. Berg Johnsen (78').

Malmo FF controlled possession (65%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.