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IFK Norrkoping vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
H. Bolin 82'
E. Ekong 34'
10/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 27Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

IFK Norrkoping37%
×Draw25%
Malmo FF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.41
Malmo FF
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 126 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.67
Malmo FF
1.63

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.27
Malmo FF
1.15

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
62%
IFK Norrkoping or Malmo FF
75%
Draw or Malmo FF
63%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
17%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
76%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
41%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
17%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
77%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
42%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
49%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 121 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.67 + Malmo FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Malmo FF attack 1.63 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
37%
level
25%
Malmo FF scores more
38%

Malmo FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
H. BolinMalmo FFMalmo FF · M
8.2

Match Events

34'
E. Ekong↳ H. Bolin
54'
Abdoulie Tamba
62'
I. Lushaku← A. Tamba
62'
Busanello← M. Olsson
64'
Ísak Andri Sigurgeirsson
69'
T. Ali← S. Haksabanovic
82'
H. Bolin↳ A. Skogmar
83'
J. Arnarsson← A. Fransson
87'
D. T. Gudjohnsen← E. Ekong
88'
O. Lewicki← O. Berg
88'
S. Holmquist← H. Bolin
89'
Y. Kalley← T. Prica

Possession

52%IFK

Shots

17IFK

Pass accuracy

50%IFK

Statistics

IFKMalmo
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots11
1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.15
6Corners3
7Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots11
3On Target5
7Off Target4
7Blocked2
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
478Total Passes447
378Accurate Passes351
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 in Allsvenskan on October 18, 2025.

Goals: E. Ekong (34'), H. Bolin (82').

IFK Norrkoping controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Platinumcars Arena in Norrkoping.