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Malmo FF vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
A. Hoog 48'
E. Botheim 45+2', 23'
A. Djuric 9'
7/12/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Malmo FF48%
×Draw23%
IFK Goteborg29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.80
IFK Goteborg
1.36

Malmo FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
1.96
IFK Goteborg
1.42

allows per match

Malmo FF
1.30
IFK Goteborg
1.65

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
71%
Malmo FF or IFK Goteborg
77%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
52%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
26%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
83%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
54%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
27%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
74%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
39%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
62%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.96 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

IFK Goteborg attack 1.42 + Malmo FF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malmo FF scores more
48%
level
23%
IFK Goteborg scores more
29%

Malmo FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Robin OlsenMalmo FFMalmo FF · G
8.5

Match Events

9'
A. Djuric↳ O. Rosengren
23'
E. Botheim
45+2'
E. Botheim↳ O. Sjostrand
46'
A. Hoog← O. Sjostrand
48'
A. Hoog↳ E. Botheim
57'
S. Alioum← S. Clemmensen
57'
M. Fenger← O. Mansson
57'
F. Ottosson← R. Lundqvist
58'
J. Bager
58'
J. Karlsson← J. Stryger
58'
T. Lundbergh← N. John
68'
D. Garcia← E. Botheim
72'
F. Ottosson
75'
A. Jallow← F. Eriksson
82'
B. Kurtulus← M. Palsson
82'
L. Radakovic← T. Heintz
87'
A. Djuric

Possession

62%Malmo

Shots

18Malmo

Pass accuracy

53%Malmo

Statistics

MalmoIFK
Overview
62%Possession38%
18Total Shots14
7Corners4
15Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots14
10On Target4
5Off Target10
3Blocked0
13Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
62%Possession38%
612Total Passes376
561Accurate Passes312
92%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs IFK Goteborg

Malmo FF beat IFK Goteborg 4-0 in Allsvenskan on July 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Djuric (9'), E. Botheim (23', 45+2'), A. Hoog (48').

Malmo FF controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmo.