Malmo FF 2–0 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hammarby FF

4/7/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 2Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Malmo FF48%

×Draw25%

Hammarby FF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

Malmo FF

1.57

Hammarby FF

1.09

Malmo FF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

2.13

creates per match

1.21

0.97

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.13

Hammarby FF

1.21

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.97

Hammarby FF

1.01

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.14scores more

Hammarby FF-0.08on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

74%

Malmo FF or Hammarby FF

75%

Draw or Hammarby FF

52%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

25%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

79%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

46%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

21%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

66%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

30%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

65%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.13 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hammarby FF attack 1.21 + Malmo FF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malmo FF scores more

48%

level

25%

Hammarby FF scores more

26%

Malmo FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff