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Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
11/2/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hammarby FF41%
×Draw25%
Malmo FF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.46
Malmo FF
1.30

Hammarby FF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
1.71
Malmo FF
1.81

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
Malmo FF
1.20

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.89scores more
Malmo FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
66%
Hammarby FF or Malmo FF
75%
Draw or Malmo FF
59%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
20%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
77%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
43%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
18%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
73%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
37%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
55%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 10 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.71 + Malmo FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Malmo FF attack 1.81 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
41%
level
25%
Malmo FF scores more
34%

Hammarby FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF

Hammarby FF and Malmo FF drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.