Malmo FF 1–1 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fehérvár FC

8/7/2018

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundMalmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malmo FF38%

×Draw32%

Fehérvár FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.84

Malmo FF

1.01

Fehérvár FC

0.84

Malmo FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

1.27

creates per match

0.75

0.93

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Malmo FF

1.27

Fehérvár FC

0.75

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.93

Fehérvár FC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

71%

Malmo FF or Fehérvár FC

68%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

62%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

15%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

64%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

27%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

8%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

57%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

21%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

57%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.27 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

Fehérvár FC attack 0.75 + Malmo FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malmo FF scores more

38%

level

32%

Fehérvár FC scores more

29%

Malmo FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff