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Fehérvár FC vs Malmo FF — UEFA Champions League 2018

Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
8/14/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundPancho Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fehérvár FC44%
×Draw27%
Malmo FF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fehérvár FC
1.36
Malmo FF
1.04

Fehérvár FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fehérvár FC
1.00
Malmo FF
1.33

allows per match

Fehérvár FC
0.75
Malmo FF
1.73

finishing

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fehérvár FC ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fehérvár FC or draw
71%
Fehérvár FC or Malmo FF
73%
Draw or Malmo FF
56%

Winning margin

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
21%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
74%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
39%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
16%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
65%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
28%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
61%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fehérvár FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fehérvár FC attack 1.00 + Malmo FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Malmo FF attack 1.33 + Fehérvár FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fehérvár FC scores more
44%
level
27%
Malmo FF scores more
29%

Fehérvár FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fehérvár FC vs Malmo FF

Fehérvár FC and Malmo FF drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on August 14, 2018.

The match was played at Pancho Arena in Felcsut.