Malmo FF 3–0 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

F91 Dudelange

8/4/2022

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Malmo FF56%

×Draw21%

F91 Dudelange23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.28

Malmo FF

2.12

F91 Dudelange

1.28

Malmo FF creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.38

1.19

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Malmo FF

1.92

F91 Dudelange

1.38

allows per match

Malmo FF

1.19

F91 Dudelange

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

77%

Malmo FF or F91 Dudelange

79%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

44%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

34%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

88%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

62%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

35%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

72%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

37%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

71%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.92 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.12

F91 Dudelange attack 1.38 + Malmo FF defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Malmo FF scores more

56%

level

21%

F91 Dudelange scores more

23%

Malmo FF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff