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F91 Dudelange vs Malmo FF — UEFA Europa League 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
8/11/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

F91 Dudelange33%
×Draw26%
Malmo FF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.25
Malmo FF
1.42

Malmo FF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
1.25
Malmo FF
1.08

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.75
Malmo FF
1.25

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
59%
F91 Dudelange or Malmo FF
74%
Draw or Malmo FF
67%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
14%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
71%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
36%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
13%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
76%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
41%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
45%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 1.25 + Malmo FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Malmo FF attack 1.08 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
33%
level
26%
Malmo FF scores more
41%

Malmo FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Malmo FF

F91 Dudelange and Malmo FF drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.