Malmo FF 4–3 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.27

Malmo FF

1.80

Dynamo Kyiv

1.27

Malmo FF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.38

1.16

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Malmo FF

1.92

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

allows per match

Malmo FF

1.16

Dynamo Kyiv

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

73%

Malmo FF or Dynamo Kyiv

77%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

50%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

27%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

83%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

54%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

27%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

72%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

36%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

65%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.92 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + Malmo FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malmo FF scores more

50%

level

23%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

27%

Malmo FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

V. Buyalskyi

Dynamo Kyiv · M

8.6

Match Events

2'

R. Bengtsson

18'

V. Mykolenko↳ V. Buyalskyi

20'

Volodymyr Shepeliev

23'

Artem Shabanov

36'

Serhiy Sydorchuk

39'

V. Tsygankov↳ V. Buyalskyi

46'

E. Rakip← B. Innocent

48'

M. Rosenberg↳ A. Traustason

57'

65'

65'

67'

70'

71'

M. Shaparenko← V. Shepelev

76'

Fouad Bachirou

77'

B. Verbič↳ V. Tsygankov

79'

G. Molins← E. Larsson

82'

O. Karavaev← B. Verbič

89'

Mykola Shaparenko

89'

D. Harmash← V. Buyalskyi

90'

Artem Besedin

90+7'

J. Knudsen← B. Safari

90+6'

M. Rosenberg↳ J. Berget

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalmoDynamo

Overview

37%Possession63%

16Total Shots15

6Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots15

7On Target7

4Off Target6

5Blocked2

15Inside Box11

1Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

315Total Passes537

221Accurate Passes434

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1