Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malmo FF

V. Buyalskyi 84'

9/19/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv31%

×Draw29%

Malmo FF41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.21

Dynamo Kyiv

1.01

Malmo FF

1.21

Malmo FF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

0.69

creates per match

1.04

1.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.69

Malmo FF

1.04

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

Malmo FF

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

59%

Dynamo Kyiv or Malmo FF

71%

Draw or Malmo FF

69%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

11%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

64%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

27%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

8%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

70%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

34%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

43%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + Malmo FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Malmo FF attack 1.04 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

31%

level

29%

Malmo FF scores more

41%

Malmo FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

A. Shabanov

Dynamo Kyiv · D

7.9

Match Events

51'

Benjamin Verbič

57'

E. Larsson← F. Beijmo

63'

Anders Christiansen

73'

A. Besedin← G. Rodrigues

73'

M. Antonsson← A. Christiansen

84'

V. Buyalskyi↳ V. Shepelev

86'

R. Gall← A. Traustason

90+1'

O. Karavaev← V. Tsygankov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoMalmo

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots8

5Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots8

3On Target2

7Off Target3

6Blocked3

13Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

546Total Passes330

462Accurate Passes234

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2