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Malmo FF vs BK Hacken — Svenska Cupen 2019

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
5/29/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · FinalsEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Malmo FF41%
×Draw20%
BK Hacken39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
2.23
BK Hacken
2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
3.24
BK Hacken
3.72

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.65
BK Hacken
1.22

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
61%
Malmo FF or BK Hacken
80%
Draw or BK Hacken
59%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
23%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
89%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
65%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
38%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
89%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
64%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
51%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 3.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 3.24 + BK Hacken defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

BK Hacken attack 3.72 + Malmo FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malmo FF scores more
41%
level
20%
BK Hacken scores more
39%

Malmo FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs BK Hacken

Malmo FF and BK Hacken drew 0-0 in Svenska Cupen on May 29, 2025.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.