BK Hacken 1–1 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

BK Hacken

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Malmo FF

11/1/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 29Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

BK Hacken43%

×Draw24%

Malmo FF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BK HackenExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.45

BK Hacken

1.68

Malmo FF

1.45

BK Hacken creates 16% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

2.20

creates per match

1.63

1.27

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

BK Hacken

2.20

Malmo FF

1.63

allows per match

BK Hacken

1.27

Malmo FF

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw

67%

BK Hacken or Malmo FF

76%

Draw or Malmo FF

57%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+

22%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals

81%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

50%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

24%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

77%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

42%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

56%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.20 + Malmo FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Malmo FF attack 1.63 + BK Hacken defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BK Hacken scores more

43%

level

24%

Malmo FF scores more

33%

BK Hacken at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff