Malmö FF U19 1–4 HJK U19: Result & Stats

Malmö FF U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

HJK U19

A. Tempelaar 90+5'

V. Vuorinen 46'

D. Ezeh 43' (pen)

L. Möller 40'

E. Makolli 2' (OG)

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundMalmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malmö FF U1920%

×Draw19%

HJK U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmö FF U19Expected goals in this matchHJK U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.46

Malmö FF U19

1.35

HJK U19

2.46

HJK U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

3.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Malmö FF U19

1.00

HJK U19

1.43

allows per match

Malmö FF U19

3.50

HJK U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

HJK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF U19 ↓

HJK U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Malmö FF U19 or draw

39%

Malmö FF U19 or HJK U19

81%

Draw or HJK U19

80%

Winning margin

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

8%

HJK U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

74%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

39%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

15%

HJK U19 1+ goals

91%

HJK U19 2+ goals

70%

HJK U19 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

25%

HJK U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

HJK U19 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.00 + HJK U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

HJK U19 attack 1.43 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Malmö FF U19 scores more

20%

level

19%

HJK U19 scores more

61%

HJK U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "HJK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. MakolliOwn goal

40'

L. Möller

43'

D. EzehPenalty

46'

A. Tempelaar← Z. Enow

46'

V. Vuorinen

53'

D. Salievski← J. Shamoun

53'

S. Lindfors← W. Persson

54'

A. Zendelovski

58'

W. Akesson

58'

E. Ingman← D. Ezeh

58'

O. Hannula← L. Möller

66'

V. Jeppsson← D. Salievski

69'

A. Hughes

70'

S. Baranov← V. Vuorinen

85'

M. Abdulmuttaleb← W. Grönblom

85'

P. Mentu← A. Toivonen

90+5'

A. Tempelaar

Malmö

HJK

79

Tynkkynen

91

⚽

▼

Vuorinen

96

▼

43

61

45

59

⚽

▼

Möller

52

▼

Toivonen

64

Ritari

51

Hardén

73

⚽

▼

Ezeh

1

Pettersso

7

Hughes

2

🥅

3

15

8

20

10

▼

Persson

21

Lajqi

28

▼

Shamoun

18

▼

Enow

Manager: M. Westerberg

46'▲A. Tempelaar←▼Z. Enow

53'▲D. Salievski←▼J. Shamoun

53'▲S. Lindfors←▼W. Persson

66'▲V. Jeppsson←▼D. Salievski

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

26Tempelaar11Salievski14Lindfors22Jeppsson6Bäckstrand19Ghita30Lundgren

Manager: M. Nuutinen

58'▲E. Ingman←▼D. Ezeh

58'▲O. Hannula←▼L. Möller

70'▲S. Baranov←▼V. Vuorinen

85'▲M. Abdulmuttaleb←▼W. Grönblom

85'▲P. Mentu←▼A. Toivonen

HJK U19 substitutes

47Ingman49Hannula95Baranov92Abdulmuttaleb58Mentu98Lietsa89Haapanen

Match Recap: Malmö FF U19 vs HJK U19

HJK U19 beat Malmö FF U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2023.

Goals: E. Makolli (2' o.g.), L. Möller (40'), D. Ezeh (43' pen), V. Vuorinen (46'), A. Tempelaar (90+5').

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.

Malmö FF U19 vs HJK U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Malmö FF U19 vs HJK U19