HJK U19 1–2 Malmö FF U19: Result & Stats

HJK U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Malmö FF U19

D. Ezeh 71'

A. Ghita 24', 18'

10/25/2023

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundBolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HJK U1958%

×Draw20%

Malmö FF U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJK U19Expected goals in this matchMalmö FF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.38

HJK U19

2.33

Malmö FF U19

1.38

HJK U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

HJK U19

1.67

Malmö FF U19

1.75

allows per match

HJK U19

1.00

Malmö FF U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HJK U19+0.00on par

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK U19 ↓

Malmö FF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

HJK U19 or draw

78%

HJK U19 or Malmö FF U19

80%

Draw or Malmö FF U19

42%

Winning margin

HJK U19 wins by 2+

37%

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

HJK U19 1+ goals

90%

HJK U19 2+ goals

67%

HJK U19 3+ goals

41%

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

75%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

40%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

HJK U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Malmö FF U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK U19 attack 1.67 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.75 + HJK U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HJK U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Malmö FF U19 scores more

22%

HJK U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HJK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

18'

24'

37'

60'

V. Jeppsson← W. Persson

66'

V. Jeppsson

71'

D. Ezeh

72'

A. Tempelaar← J. Shamoun

77'

O. Hannula← D. Ezeh

77'

K. Hardén← A. Toivonen

78'

N. Zetterstrom

85'

L. Moller

87'

S. Lindfors

90+3'

J. Lietsa← S. Silander

HJK

Malmö

1

7

2

14

3

15

8

20

10

▼

Persson

28

▼

Shamoun

19

⚽2

79

91

96

43

▼

61

45

59

52

▼

Toivonen

64

Ritari

73

⚽

▼

Ezeh

95

Baranov

Manager: M. Nuutinen

77'▲O. Hannula←▼D. Ezeh

77'▲K. Hardén←▼A. Toivonen

90+3'▲J. Lietsa←▼S. Silander

HJK U19 substitutes

49Hannula51Hardén98Lietsa47Ingman58Mentu89Haapanen92Abdulmuttaleb

Manager: M. Westerberg

60'▲V. Jeppsson←▼W. Persson

72'▲A. Tempelaar←▼J. Shamoun

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

22Jeppsson26Tempelaar5Atie18Enow30Lundgren6Agah11Karlsson

UEFA Youth League: HJK U19 1–2 Malmö FF U19

Malmö FF U19 beat HJK U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2023.

Goals: A. Ghita (18', 24'), D. Ezeh (71').

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.

HJK U19 vs Malmö FF U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: HJK U19 1–2 Malmö FF U19