Malmö FF U19 0–5 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Malmö FF U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea U19

C. Webster 90'

A. Gilchrist 76'

L. Hall 58'

B. Fiabema 44', 40'

11/2/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malmö FF U1919%

×Draw17%

Chelsea U1964%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmö FF U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.72

Malmö FF U19

1.44

Chelsea U19

2.72

Chelsea U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

1.94

3.50

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Malmö FF U19

1.00

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Malmö FF U19

3.50

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Malmö FF U19 or draw

36%

Malmö FF U19 or Chelsea U19

83%

Draw or Chelsea U19

81%

Winning margin

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

8%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

76%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

42%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

18%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

93%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

75%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.00 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malmö FF U19 scores more

19%

level

17%

Chelsea U19 scores more

64%

Chelsea U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

B. Fiabema↳ J. Brooking

44'

B. Fiabema↳ S. Thomas

58'

L. Hall↳ S. Thomas

65'

A. Hughes← H. Bolin

65'

E. Andersson← D. Rankine

65'

L. Castledine← X. Simons

74'

J. Wareham← J. Soonsup-Bell

75'

A. Avdic← M. Widell

76'

A. Gilchrist↳ C. Webster

79'

L. Flower← B. Fiabema

79'

J. Haigh← L. Hall

88'

L. Nicklasson

90+2'

J. Haigh

90'

C. Webster↳ E. Andersson

Malmö

Chelsea

1

Sharman-L

3

A

Brooking

5

Hughes

4

⚽

Gilchrist

6

▼

Simons

2

▼

Rankine

8

⚽

▼

Hall

7

⚽A

Webster

9

⚽2

▼

Fiabema

10

▼

Soonsup-B

11

A

30

4

2

13

5

22

6

8

10

▼

Bolin

9

Bjerkebo

14

▼

Widell

Manager: M. Westerberg

65'▲A. Hughes←▼H. Bolin

75'▲A. Avdic←▼M. Widell

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

27Hughes7Avdic26Hamawand18Perez21Braendshöi1Andersson3Al-Imam

Manager: A. Myers

65'▲E. Andersson←▼D. Rankine

65'▲L. Castledine←▼X. Simons

74'▲J. Wareham←▼J. Soonsup-Bell

79'▲L. Flower←▼B. Fiabema

79'▲J. Haigh←▼L. Hall

Chelsea U19 substitutes

12Andersson15Castledine14Wareham16Flower17Haigh13Adegoke18Tobin

Match Recap: Malmö FF U19 vs Chelsea U19

Chelsea U19 beat Malmö FF U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 2, 2021.

Goals: B. Fiabema (40', 44'), L. Hall (58'), A. Gilchrist (76'), C. Webster (90').

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.

Malmö FF U19 vs Chelsea U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Malmö FF U19 vs Chelsea U19