Chelsea U19 4–2 Malmö FF U19: Result & Stats

Chelsea U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malmö FF U19

S. Thomas 89'

B. Fiabema 77'

X. Simons 69'

D. Rankine 61'

I. Bjerkebo 58', 5'

10/20/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Kingsmeadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chelsea U1968%

×Draw16%

Malmö FF U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea U19Expected goals in this matchMalmö FF U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.56

Chelsea U19

3.13

Malmö FF U19

1.56

Chelsea U19 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

3.25

creates per match

1.75

1.38

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Chelsea U19

3.25

Malmö FF U19

1.75

allows per match

Chelsea U19

1.38

Malmö FF U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Malmö FF U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U19 ↓

Malmö FF U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Chelsea U19 or draw

83%

Chelsea U19 or Malmö FF U19

84%

Draw or Malmö FF U19

32%

Winning margin

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

48%

Malmö FF U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

95%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

81%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

59%

Malmö FF U19 1+ goals

79%

Malmö FF U19 2+ goals

46%

Malmö FF U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Malmö FF U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Malmö FF U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U19 attack 3.25 + Malmö FF U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Malmö FF U19 attack 1.75 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chelsea U19 scores more

68%

level

16%

Malmö FF U19 scores more

17%

Chelsea U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. Bjerkebo↳ P. Strömberg

46'

J. Soonsup-Bell← J. Haigh

53'

B. Hughes← J. Tobin

58'

I. Bjerkebo

61'

D. Rankine↳ C. Webster

63'

S. Thomas← L. Hall

63'

E. Andersson← C. Webster

69'

X. Simons↳ E. Andersson

72'

L. Flower← D. Rankine

77'

B. Fiabema↳ E. Andersson

78'

A. Hughes← H. Bolin

86'

A. Avdic← M. Widell

86'

A. Neziri← I. Bjerkebo

89'

S. Thomas↳ B. Hughes

90'

L. Hamawand← A. Karlin

90'

M. Braendshöi← H. Larsson

Chelsea

Malmö

16

Ellborg

4

Nicklasso

3

Al-Imam

13

A

Strömberg

2

Makolli

11

Nanasi

6

▼

Karlin

8

▼

Larsson

10

▼

Bolin

9

⚽2

▼

Bjerkebo

14

▼

1

3

5

6

⚽

Simons

2

⚽

▼

Rankine

7

▼

Haigh

8

▼

Hall

10

A

▼

Webster

11

Vale

4

▼

Tobin

9

⚽

Fiabema

Manager: A. Myers

46'▲J. Soonsup-Bell←▼J. Haigh

53'▲B. Hughes←▼J. Tobin

63'▲S. Thomas←▼L. Hall

63'▲E. Andersson←▼C. Webster

72'▲L. Flower←▼D. Rankine

Chelsea U19 substitutes

12Soonsup-Bell14Hughes16Thomas17Andersson18Flower15McClelland13Adegoke

Manager: M. Westerberg

78'▲A. Hughes←▼H. Bolin

86'▲A. Avdic←▼M. Widell

86'▲A. Neziri←▼I. Bjerkebo

90'▲L. Hamawand←▼A. Karlin

90'▲M. Braendshöi←▼H. Larsson

Malmö FF U19 substitutes

27Hughes7Avdic15Neziri26Hamawand21Braendshöi20Salievski1Andersson

UEFA Youth League: Chelsea U19 4–2 Malmö FF U19

Chelsea U19 beat Malmö FF U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 20, 2021.

Goals: I. Bjerkebo (5', 58'), D. Rankine (61'), X. Simons (69'), B. Fiabema (77'), S. Thomas (89').

The match was played at Kingsmeadow in Kingston upon Thames, Surrey.

Chelsea U19 vs Malmö FF U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Chelsea U19 4–2 Malmö FF U19