Mallorca 2–3 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Fuenlabrada

Abdón Prats 52'

B. Cufré 20'

Damián 63'

Iban Salvador 33'

Rubén Pulido 11'

12/19/2020

Segunda División · Round 19Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca53%

×Draw27%

Fuenlabrada20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.79

Mallorca

1.45

Fuenlabrada

0.79

Mallorca creates 84% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

1.57

creates per match

0.92

0.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Fuenlabrada

0.92

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Fuenlabrada

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

80%

Mallorca or Fuenlabrada

73%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

47%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

27%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

77%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

18%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

55%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

19%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

72%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fuenlabrada attack 0.92 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mallorca scores more

53%

level

27%

Fuenlabrada scores more

20%

Mallorca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Mikel Iribas

Fuenlabrada · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

Alejandro Sotillos Miarnau

11'

Rubén Pulido

16'

RailloPenalty confirmed

20'

B. Cufré↳ Febas

25'

31'

31'

33'

33'

39'

45'

45'

45'

46'

A. Sedlar← Salva Sevilla

46'

Antonio Sánchez← Jordi Mboula

48'

Franco Russo

52'

Abdón Prats↳ Ruiz de Galarreta

56'

Jano

57'

Damián← Jano

63'

Damián

66'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

67'

I. Mohammed← Ruiz de Galarreta

68'

Óscar Pinchi← Iban Salvador

72'

Randy Nteka

82'

Álex Alegría← A. Ndiaye

84'

A. Fuentes← F. Feuillassier

89'

Aldair Fuentes

90'

Pol Valentin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaFuenlabrada

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots11

3Corners3

16Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked1

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

307Total Passes334

214Accurate Passes265

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls21

7Yellow Cards5

2Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Segunda División: Mallorca 2–3 Fuenlabrada

Fuenlabrada beat Mallorca 3-2 in Segunda División on December 19, 2020.

Goals: Rubén Pulido (11'), B. Cufré (20'), Iban Salvador (33'), Abdón Prats (52'), Damián (63').

Fuenlabrada controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Iberostar Estadi in Palma de Mallorca.

Mallorca vs Fuenlabrada — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mallorca 2–3 Fuenlabrada