Fuenlabrada 4–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Fuenlabrada

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Mallorca

P. Ciss 73'

R. Nteka 41' (pen)

Óscar Pinchi 38', 13'

Jordi Mboula 56'

3/29/2021

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fuenlabrada35%

×Draw31%

Mallorca34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuenlabradaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.00

Fuenlabrada

1.03

Mallorca

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.06

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Fuenlabrada

1.16

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Fuenlabrada

1.06

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw

66%

Fuenlabrada or Mallorca

69%

Draw or Mallorca

65%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

14%

Mallorca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

64%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

28%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

9%

Mallorca 1+ goals

63%

Mallorca 2+ goals

26%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

51%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 63 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more

35%

level

31%

Mallorca scores more

34%

Fuenlabrada at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Óscar Pinchi

Fuenlabrada · M

9.3

Match Events

-5'

13'

17'

38'

41'

R. NtekaPenalty

46'

Álvaro Giménez← Febas

56'

Jordi Mboula↳ Brian Oliván

66'

P. Ciss← Jano

66'

Mikel Iribas← Borja Garcés

72'

Álex Mula← Javier Espinosa

73'

P. Ciss↳ Álex Mula

75'

Cristóbal Márquez

75'

Fran Gámez← Joan Sastre

75'

Murilo← Salva Sevilla

78'

Cardona← Abdón Prats

78'

Víctor Mollejo← Jordi Mboula

83'

A. Fuentes← Óscar Pinchi

83'

Adrián Diéguez← Cristóbal

90'

Ismaila Ciss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FuenlabradaMallorca

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots11

4Corners8

21Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots11

9On Target4

1Off Target6

3Blocked1

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

259Total Passes359

170Accurate Passes261

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3