Mallorca 1–0 Celta Vigo: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celta Vigo

Dani Rodríguez 59'

1/20/2023

La Liga · Round 18Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Mallorca39%

×Draw27%

Celta Vigo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchCelta Vigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Mallorca

1.33

Celta Vigo

1.21

Mallorca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

1.22

1.21

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Celta Vigo

1.22

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Celta Vigo

1.43

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Celta Vigo+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Celta Vigo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

66%

Mallorca or Celta Vigo

73%

Draw or Celta Vigo

61%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

18%

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

38%

Mallorca 3+ goals

15%

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

70%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

34%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

54%

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Celta Vigo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.43 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Celta Vigo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Celta Vigo attack 1.22 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mallorca scores more

39%

level

27%

Celta Vigo scores more

34%

Mallorca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Rajković

Mallorca · G

7.5

Match Events

32'

Iddrisu Baba

46'

C. Grenier← I. Baba

46'

T. Kadewere← A. Ndiaye

59'

Dani Rodríguez↳ Pablo Maffeo

67'

Carles Pérez← Hugo Mallo

68'

Óscar Rodríguez← L. de la Torre

68'

Gonçalo Paciência← J. Strand Larsen

76'

Predrag Rajković

76'

Javi Galán← F. Cervi

77'

Copete← M. Nastasić

85'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

86'

Joseph Aidoo

87'

R. Tapia← Óscar Mingueza

89'

Óscar Rodríguez

90+5'

Fran Beltrán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaCelta

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots10

0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.53

4Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked4

6Inside Box2

2Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

396Total Passes552

303Accurate Passes466

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0