Celta Vigo 4–3 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta VigoExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.02

Celta Vigo

1.61

Mallorca

1.02

Celta Vigo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

1.49

creates per match

0.93

1.11

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Celta Vigo

1.49

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Celta Vigo

1.11

Mallorca

1.74

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Celta Vigo-0.02on par

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

76%

Celta Vigo or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

49%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

27%

Mallorca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

80%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

48%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

22%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

27%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

68%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.11 · 34 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.49 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Celta Vigo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Celta Vigo scores more

51%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

24%

Celta Vigo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iago Aspas

Celta Vigo · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Manolo Reina

6'

Fran Beltrán

13'

Thiago Galhardo

17'

G. González↳ Jaume Costa

25'

Denis Suárez↳ Iago Aspas

26'

Denis SuárezGoal confirmed

49'

J. AidooOwn goal

61'

Iago Aspas↳ F. Cervi

62'

R. Tapia← Thiago Galhardo

63'

Santi Mina← Fran Beltrán

66'

Vedat Muriqi

67'

Salva Sevilla← I. Baba

67'

67'

71'

74'

78'

79'

R. Battaglia← Antonio Sánchez

79'

Fer Niño← Dani Rodríguez

80'

Antonio Raillo

82'

Brais Méndez

84'

Vedat MuriqiPenalty awarded

86'

Hugo Mallo

86'

Hugo Mallo

87'

Salva SevillaPenalty

90+4'

Ángel Rodríguez

90+3'

Rodrigo Battaglia

90+7'

Iago AspasPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CeltaMallorca

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots12

4Corners5

17Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots12

8On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked4

9Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

559Total Passes377

469Accurate Passes285

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls9

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1