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Mallorca vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
Preview
15:00
Almeria
Almeria
9/27/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Big match
47%
Mallorca
model favours
47%27%26%

Almeria score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca47%
×Draw27%
Almeria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.42
Almeria
0.97

Mallorca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 131 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Almeria
1.28

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Almeria
1.26

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Almeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
74%
Mallorca or Almeria
73%
Draw or Almeria
53%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
23%
Almeria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
76%
Mallorca 2+ goals
41%
Mallorca 3+ goals
17%
Almeria 1+ goals
62%
Almeria 2+ goals
25%
Almeria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
65%
Almeria (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Almeria attack 1.28 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mallorca scores more
47%
level
27%
Almeria scores more
26%

Mallorca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Almeria fall short of their xG (1.7 vs 2.3 expected)
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mallorca
WLLDW
Almeria
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mallorca face Almeria (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Mallorca hosting Almeria. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mallorca host Almeria at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.