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Almeria vs Mallorca — La Liga 2018

Almeria
Almeria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
12/17/2023La LigaLa Liga · Round 17Power Horse Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Almeria55%
×Draw24%
Mallorca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeria
1.71
Mallorca
0.95

Almeria creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 95 away

creates per match

Almeria
1.64
Mallorca
0.77

allows per match

Almeria
1.14
Mallorca
1.77

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Almeria or draw
79%
Almeria or Mallorca
76%
Draw or Mallorca
45%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+
30%
Mallorca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals
82%
Almeria 2+ goals
51%
Almeria 3+ goals
24%
Mallorca 1+ goals
61%
Mallorca 2+ goals
25%
Mallorca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)
73%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.77 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.64 + Mallorca defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mallorca attack 0.77 + Almeria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Almeria scores more
55%
level
24%
Mallorca scores more
21%

Almeria at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almeria vs Mallorca

Almeria and Mallorca drew 0-0 in La Liga on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Power Horse Stadium in Almería.