Mallorca 2–2 Almeria: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Almeria

5/19/2024

La Liga · Round 37Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mallorca52%

×Draw24%

Almeria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.09

Mallorca

1.70

Almeria

1.09

Mallorca creates 56% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 21 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Mallorca

1.25

Almeria

1.10

allows per match

Mallorca

1.08

Almeria

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

76%

Mallorca or Almeria

76%

Draw or Almeria

48%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

28%

Almeria wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

82%

Mallorca 2+ goals

51%

Mallorca 3+ goals

24%

Almeria 1+ goals

66%

Almeria 2+ goals

30%

Almeria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

68%

Almeria (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.25 + Almeria defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.70

Almeria attack 1.10 + Mallorca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mallorca scores more

52%

level

24%

Almeria scores more

24%

Mallorca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff