Mallorca II 4–0 Campos: Result & Stats

Mallorca II

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Campos

4/17/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 40Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mallorca II77%

×Draw15%

Campos8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mallorca IIExpected goals in this matchCampos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.73

Mallorca II

2.59

Campos

0.73

Mallorca II creates 255% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

2.91

creates per match

0.92

0.53

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Mallorca II

2.91

Campos

0.92

allows per match

Mallorca II

0.53

Campos

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Campos →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw

92%

Mallorca II or Campos

85%

Draw or Campos

23%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+

55%

Campos wins by 2+

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

92%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

73%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

47%

Campos 1+ goals

52%

Campos 2+ goals

17%

Campos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

90%

Campos (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Campos away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Campos defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.59

Campos attack 0.92 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Mallorca II scores more

77%

level

15%

Campos scores more

Mallorca II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff