Campos 1–2 Mallorca II: Result & Stats

Campos

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mallorca II

12/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Camp Municipal d'Esports de Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Campos18%

×Draw24%

Mallorca II59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamposExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.73

Campos

0.83

Mallorca II

1.73

Mallorca II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 80 away

0.95

creates per match

1.96

1.49

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Campos

0.95

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Campos

1.49

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Campos+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campos ↓

Mallorca II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Campos or draw

41%

Campos or Mallorca II

76%

Draw or Mallorca II

82%

Winning margin

Campos wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Campos 1+ goals

56%

Campos 2+ goals

20%

Campos 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

82%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

52%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Campos (draw refunded)

23%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Campos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.49 · 37 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Campos attack 0.95 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Campos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Campos scores more

18%

level

24%

Mallorca II scores more

59%

Mallorca II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff