Mallorca II 2–1 Alaior: Result & Stats

Mallorca II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alaior

5/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 33Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mallorca II76%

×Draw16%

Alaior8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mallorca IIExpected goals in this matchAlaior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.65

Mallorca II

2.37

Alaior

0.65

Mallorca II creates 265% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

2.91

creates per match

0.76

0.53

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mallorca II

2.91

Alaior

0.76

allows per match

Mallorca II

0.53

Alaior

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Alaior →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–18%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw

92%

Mallorca II or Alaior

84%

Draw or Alaior

24%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+

52%

Alaior wins by 2+

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

91%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

68%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

42%

Alaior 1+ goals

48%

Alaior 2+ goals

14%

Alaior 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

90%

Alaior (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Alaior attack 0.76 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Mallorca II scores more

76%

level

16%

Alaior scores more

Mallorca II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff