Alaior 2–2 Mallorca II: Result & Stats

Alaior

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mallorca II

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Estadio Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alaior18%

×Draw25%

Mallorca II56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlaiorExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.57

Alaior

0.77

Mallorca II

1.57

Mallorca II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

0.82

creates per match

1.96

1.18

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Alaior

0.82

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Alaior

1.18

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaior+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaior ↓

Mallorca II →

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alaior or draw

44%

Alaior or Mallorca II

75%

Draw or Mallorca II

82%

Winning margin

Alaior wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Alaior 1+ goals

54%

Alaior 2+ goals

18%

Alaior 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

79%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

46%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alaior (draw refunded)

25%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alaior at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alaior attack 0.82 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Alaior defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alaior scores more

18%

level

25%

Mallorca II scores more

56%

Mallorca II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff