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Malkiya vs Khalidiya — Premier League 2019

Malkiya
Malkiya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khalidiya
Khalidiya
Sayed Adnan 90+4'
Issa Abd Al Wahab 26'
Igor Torres 20'
12/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya26%
×Draw28%
Khalidiya46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malkiya
0.91
Khalidiya
1.31

Khalidiya creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Malkiya
0.88
Khalidiya
1.75

allows per match

Malkiya
0.88
Khalidiya
0.94

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par
Khalidiya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Khalidiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw
54%
Malkiya or Khalidiya
72%
Draw or Khalidiya
74%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+
9%
Khalidiya wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals
60%
Malkiya 2+ goals
23%
Malkiya 3+ goals
6%
Khalidiya 1+ goals
73%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
38%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)
36%
Khalidiya (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Khalidiya away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Khalidiya defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Khalidiya attack 1.75 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malkiya scores more
26%
level
28%
Khalidiya scores more
46%

Khalidiya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Igor Torres
26'
Issa Abd Al Wahab
90+3'
90+3'
90+4'
S. Dabo
90+4'
S. Dabo
90+4'
Sayed Adnan
Malkiya
Khalidiya
Ahmed Al Dakheel
Manager: Ahmed Al Dakheel
Ali Ashour
Manager: Ali Ashour

Premier League: Malkiya 2–1 Khalidiya

Malkiya beat Khalidiya 2-1 in Premier League on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Igor Torres (20'), Issa Abd Al Wahab (26'), Sayed Adnan (90+4').

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.