Khalidiya 1–2 Malkiya: Result & Stats

Khalidiya

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Malkiya

Mahdi Abduljabbar 45+5'

K. Tamrani 90+1' (pen)

Issa Abd Al Wahab 56'

5/6/2025

Premier League · Round 18Khalifa Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Khalidiya54%

×Draw24%

Malkiya22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhalidiyaExpected goals in this matchMalkiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.99

Khalidiya

1.71

Malkiya

0.99

Khalidiya creates 73% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

1.94

creates per match

1.12

0.85

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Khalidiya

1.94

Malkiya

1.12

allows per match

Khalidiya

0.85

Malkiya

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par

Malkiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Malkiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw

78%

Khalidiya or Malkiya

76%

Draw or Malkiya

46%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+

30%

Malkiya wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals

82%

Khalidiya 2+ goals

51%

Khalidiya 3+ goals

24%

Malkiya 1+ goals

63%

Malkiya 2+ goals

26%

Malkiya 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)

71%

Malkiya (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Malkiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 1.94 + Malkiya defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Malkiya attack 1.12 + Khalidiya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khalidiya scores more

54%

level

24%

Malkiya scores more

22%

Khalidiya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

O. Marshal

45+5'

Mahdi Abduljabbar

56'

Issa Abd Al Wahab

90+1'

K. TamraniPenalty

Khalidiya

Malkiya

Manager: Ali Ashour

Manager: Ahmed Al Dakheel